Desindustrialização precoce no Brasil: causas estruturais, impasses políticos e possibilidades de reindustrialização no século XXI

Abstract

This paper aims to critically analyze the process of Brazilian deindustrialization through a literature review that articulates classical Latin American structuralist theories with contemporary approaches to economic development. The central hypothesis is that the Brazilian case deviates from the classical pattern of deindustrialization, as it took place before the consolidation of a complex and autonomous industrial structure, in a context of dependent integration into the global economy. The study examines both structural and cyclical causes of industrial decline, the associated economic and social impacts — such as labor precarization and the reprimarization of exports — and the limitations of public policies implemented since the 1980s. Methodologically, the research draws on a systematic review of authors such as Celso Furtado, Raul Prebisch, Maria da Conceição Tavares, Leda Paulani, Dani Rodrik, and José Luis Oreiro, supported by empirical data from IBGE, Ipea, and the OECD. Based on the literature reviewed, it is suggested that Brazilian deindustrialization results both from inherited limitations of the import substitution model and from the absence of a national development strategy focused on productive and technological upgrading. The study concludes by discussing current proposals for reindustrialization based on productive innovation and technological upgrading