Gestão de riscos no mercado de capitais brasileiro: o papel dos derivativos em momentos de volatilidade econômica

Abstract

This monograph analyzes the role of derivatives as risk management instruments in the Brazilian capital market during periods of economic volatility. The research examines the historical evolution of risk management in Brazil, the fundamentals of derivative instruments available in the national market, and their behavior during specific crises that affected the Brazilian economy in recent decades. Through a mixed methodological approach, combining literature review, documentary analysis, and historical data study, the work investigates six episodes of volatility: the 1999 currency crisis, the 2002 political crisis (“Lula Risk”), the 2008 global financial crisis, the 2015-2016 political and fiscal crisis, the 2018 truckers’ strike, and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. The comparative analysis of these episodes reveals recurring patterns in the behavior of the derivatives market during crisis periods, variations in the effectiveness of these instruments depending on the specific nature of each event, and a significant evolution in market practices over time. The study identifies characteristics of successful strategies for using derivatives during periods of volatility and formulates specific recommendations for non-financial companies, financial institutions, and regulators, aiming to improve risk management in future scenarios of instability. The results show that derivatives, when properly used in the context of robust governance and control structures, represent powerful tools for the resilience of the Brazilian financial system in the face of adverse shocks, although their effectiveness crucially depends on an adequate understanding of their mechanisms, limitations, and potential risks