O valor do cashback tributário para o cidadão: mensuração empírica e efetividade do princípio da capacidade contributiva

Abstract

This work investigates the tax-cashback established by the Brazilian Tax Reform (Constitutional Amendment No. 132/2023 and Complementary Law No. 214/2025) as an instrument for operationalising the Principle of Tax-Paying Capacity and for reducing tax regressivity. The main objective of the research is to quantify the value of the cashback for the citizen, especially for low-income households, in order to measure the distributive impact of tax refunds on consumption. Based on the construction of an empirical simulation model, a software artefact entitled Tax-Cashback Calculator was developed in an Excel spreadsheet, which allows estimation of the average refund values of the CBS and the IBS according to income brackets, consumption patterns and categories of goods and services. The instrument enables the user to visualise the annual amount refunded and its influence on disposable income, constituting a tool for civic education. The employed methodology combines normative and quantitative analysis, using legal parameters from law 214/2025, official data from IBGE, Receita Federal and IPEA, as well as simulations with different consumption scenarios. The results demonstrate that the cashback, when efficiently and appropriately operationalised, can represent an increase of up to 6 % in the disposable income of families situated in the lowest income brackets, measurably reducing the effective tax burden on essential goods. The findings confirm that the tax-cashback is a compensatory mechanism capable of giving concrete effect to the principle of paying capacity, promoting greater equity and tax justice. However, its effectiveness depends on structural conditions, such as interoperability of cadastral bases, digital infrastructure and fiscal education policies targeted at the beneficiary population. The paper contributes to the accounting-tax field by proposing an applied methodology for measuring the fiscal benefit to the citizen, demonstrating that empirical analysis instruments can bridge constitutional theory and administrative practice. Moreover, the Tax-Cashback Calculator represents a prototype of a digital public policy, with potential to support fiscal management and the dissemination of tax citizenship